Sometimes I'm asked to answer the same question as a stockbroker; people call and ask, "How's the (ECM) market?"

No one is actually looking for scientific data, they just want to know I'm hearing. I talk to a few hundred ECM professionals each week, so it's fair to say my ear is pretty close to the ground, in the USA, anyway.

And what I'm observing is that companies are re-thinking their ECM strategies for a number of reasons: Regulatory (FDA, ISA, SOX etc...), Business/IT Strategy (SOA, SaaS, Enterprise 2.0), Storage (Scanning, Archiving and Access), Cost, Ease of Use, and the availability of newer technologies ( SharePoint, Alfresco).

The (ECM) market, as a whole, seems to be growing, but the old mainstays (DOCUMENTUM, FileNet, OpenText) are no longer the default response. 

Does this mean that Documentum is losing market-share? someone recently asked. It's hard to answer that question without any real statistics on hand. 

We do know that EMC is enjoying record revenue growth, but what about Documentum? EMC's report doesn't reveal product-specific statistics.

The April 28 press release does say that the Content Management and Archiving division (CMA), which includes not only Documentum but 15 or so document-capture and ILM products that are sold under the Captiva name, grew revenues eight percent.

This could look like good news EXCEPT that license revenues seem to be falling. They were $58.6 million in  Q1 of 2008 down from  $68.5 million for Q1 of 2007 according to CMS Watch. And while the loss doesn't seem big, it's huge in comparison to the previous quarter's performance, Q4 of 2007 saw CMA license revenues come in at $115.3 million, "after trending upward all year" notes the CMS report.

"A 50 percent plunge in license revenue, quarter over quarter, is never good, no matter what the reason(s) behind it," notes CMS Watch analyst Kas Thomas.

If the trend continues (and I'm hoping that it won't), then the demand for Documentum-specific skills will shrink and the supply of professionals who posses them will stay steady or grow (and I think it is growing right now.)

What could this mean to those who hold their Documentum-related skills as a commodity? That the market-value of your commodity may not grow any faster than the rate of inflation (translated: you won't have the bargaining power you've been accustomed to) UNLESS you pair it with something that's hot.

Buy. Sell. Hold? I say hold AND add something hot to your portfolio.